_Australian population growth

For the third consecutive year, Melbourne remained the fastest growing capital city in Australia, growing by 2.4% in the 12 months to June 2016, well above the Australian average of 1.4% over the same period. Alternatively, the winding back of resource projects and subsequent weaker contribution of Net Overseas Migration (NOM) remains a drag on population growth in the dominant mining states, albeit concentrated in WA as people head to the Eastern states for work.

May 02, 2017

Official population statistics were released by the ABS in late March and shows Australia added 337,821 persons over the 12 months to June 2016, moderately down on the 10 year average of 367,791 persons per annum. As a result of the recent increase, Australia’s population currently totals 24.13 million. Unsurprisingly, capital cities accounted for 82% of population gains over the past 12 months, centered on Melbourne and Sydney.

Underpinned by their robust local economies, Sydney and Melbourne collectively accounted for 56% of the nation’s population gains over the past 12 months. This represents a significant turnaround from 10 years ago where Sydney and Melbourne contributed just 37% of Australia’s population growth. The strong turnaround is the result of employment growth in recent years where NSW and Vic collectively accounted for 84% of new jobs created over the past three years. Similarly, a pick-up in NOM into both states and Net Interstate Migration (NIM) into Victoria was the catalyst behind the recent population gains in Sydney and Melbourne.

Population growth in Melbourne grew at its fastest pace on record in absolute terms, adding 107,770 persons over the past 12 months. Population growth in Melbourne has stemmed from areas where new housing construction has been high including South Morang, Cranbourne East and Craigieburn on the outer skirts of Melbourne. Similarly, the surge in apartment construction across Inner Melbourne has contributed significantly to population growth, underpinned by the Melbourne CBD, South Yarra and the Docklands.

For Sydney, the total population surpassed five million persons as a result of the city adding 82,797 persons over the 12 months to June 2016. The outer suburbs of Sydney including Cobbitty - Leppington, Riverstone - Marsden Park represented the largest source of population gains over the period while Sydney’s Inner South region recorded solid growth, supported by Waterloo-Beaconsfield and Mascot - Eastlakes.

Following three years of slowing growth, a sharp turnaround in population growth was recorded in Brisbane, increasing 1.8% over the 12 months, up from 1.5% for the 12 months prior. The improvement has stemmed from a pick-up in Net Interstate Migration (NIM) which has seen people from NSW and Vic move to Qld arguably in search of more affordable housing options. Population growth in the remaining capital cities has been more moderate over the past 12 months, while regional Australia has grown by 0.8% over the same period, down from the 10 year average of 1.2% per annum.

Looking ahead, Sydney and Melbourne are expected to remain the standout performers in regards to population growth, however with average house prices currently nudging $1.1 million and $800,000 respectively, it is likely the flow of residents into coastal areas and other states will pick up over the short to medium term.